Contextual risk; the best form of defence when confronting uncertainty[Johannesburg, 7 October 2019] -
During the Cold War things were relatively simple: Everyone knew who the likely opponents were and could develop strategies and forces on that basis. Today a multipolar world presents a range of risks and threats - states, insurgents, guerrillas, terrorists and well-armed criminal groups, and often with intermingled and varying agendas and objectives.
This complex situation is well described as "volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous", or VUCA, a term developed by students of the US Army War College in the 1990s. That is an apt description of the strategic situation in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is likely to become more complex over time as various external actors - states and non-state groups - increase their involvement in the region... [Full Story...]